Simulator

Strategy Simulator

Run a Monte Carlo simulation across thousands of bankroll paths. Compare staking strategies side-by-side. Plug in your own win rate and average odds to see the distribution of outcomes.

Strategy Template

Bet half the Kelly fraction. Smoother curve, most sharps use this.

Starting Bankroll ($)

Win Rate (0–1)

Average Odds (American)

Bets to Simulate

Simulation Paths

Bankroll paths

— Median⋯ P90⋯ P10

Median End Bankroll

$1229

Expected End Bankroll

$1307

P10 (downside)

$766

P90 (upside)

$1973

Ruin Rate

0.0%

300 paths

Max Drawdown

71%

Plain-English insight

Using Half Kelly over 200 bets at average odds of -110 with a 55.0% win rate, you are slightly above breakeven (52.4% is the break-even rate at -110). Median ending bankroll is 1229 (+22.9%). Ruin rate: 0.0%. Max drawdown seen: 71%. This is a simulation — not a prediction or recommendation.

Important

This simulation uses your assumptions. It is not a prediction or recommendation. Results vary by simulation seed. Past simulations do not guarantee future outcomes. Gamble responsibly — call 1-800-GAMBLER.